The current row between the Philippines and Taiwan is an example of the kind of problems that Le Miere(2011) and Holmes (2012) foresaw with the rising
use of paramilitaries in the South China/West Philippine Sea. I can also understand why Taiwan is quite concerned, as coast guards shooting fishermen and going "unpunished" sets a bad precedent that the 5 Dragons of China will be more than willing to exploit in future skirmishes.
These
armed escalations spell trouble for all those with claims in the
region, but will offer an advantage to those who already have immense
maritime paramilitary fleets at their disposal.
Even
if countries paint all of their navy ships white and call them coast guard, they would still be vastly outnumbered by the 5 dragon (un)armada (plus fishing
fleets).
This ongoing conflict
must be quickly de-escalated and a pragmatic code of conduct for
paramilitaries within the region to be immediately adopted. Otherwise,
this might turn out to be another "War of Jenkin's Ear" or "Cod War".
Dunndunndunndunn!
Friday, May 17, 2013
Storm in a bamboo cup
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